Scotland stands this St Andrew's day, like a hitchhiker on a closed road.
A sense of urgency and indignation prevails, amongst nationalists, desperate to get to their destination – that shining city, on a hill called Independence. While aggravation and self-righteousness has erupted in those interested in staying right where we are, within this union.
Both sides totally entrenched in their positions – one side is interested in debating the issue, hoping to put their case in a referendum campaign the other, following the UK Supreme Court ruling, is crowing convinced (hoping) that it's all over.
It's important to remember how we arrived at this desperate situation.
Following umpteen mandates to hold IndyRef 2, independence supporters have been marched up and down every political hill but independence; such as SNP efforts in trying to prevent English voters from achieving their own democratic will, by attempting to Stop Brexit.
After failure in that attempt, we then had to watch as the bold words, "Scotland will not be ripped out of Europe against our will" rang hollow as the worst possible Brexit imaginable was inflicted on our nation due to the popular will of neighbouring nations.
Perhaps, instead of abstaining, the SNP should have voted in favour of Teresa May's Brexit deal in exchange for a permanent Section 30 provision being added to the Scotland Act. That would have been astute. Instead, we got Boris, etc, etc…
There has been a lot of huffing and puffing, but you would be forgiven for wondering what the SNP have been up to since 2016. Apart from attempting to neutralise potential political threats to the party leadership, including using drummed-up spurious allegations, against their former leader, which were never meant to jackknife out of control in the way they eventually did.
SNP leadership were like rabbits in the headlights, unable to move. Then a global pandemic arrived exacerbating an already difficult situation; guaranteeing that a financial disaster was on the horizon, following the double whammy of closed economies and runaway money printing, globally. Something urgently had to be done.
It was clear that the 2021 Holyrood election provided an opportunity.
The Scottish parliamentary voting system was designed by Unionists to rig Scotland into permanent coalition governments, in order to prevent independence. But what if it could be used to return a Supermajority of pro-independence MSPs with an outright mandate to deliver independence on day one of a new parliament?
The Alba Party was born on the basis that the SNP, then so powerful in the Constituency vote were – as a result – unable to elect top up MSPs on the Regional List vote.
The #BothVotesSNP strategy of 2011, which understood the arithmetic of that time – returning 16 SNP List MSPs, was a failure in 2016 when a different arithmetic was at play. It delivered only four SNP List MSPs.
Predictably, it was a failure again in 2021, delivering only two Regional List MSP from over 1 Million SNP List votes. The most expensive MSPs in Scottish parliamentary history – 1 Million votes to elect two people.
The ALBA strategy to supercharge the number of pro-independence voting MSPs was to only stand List candidates in 2021 while promoting the SNP in the Constituency vote. This was an obvious strategy since the SNPs #BothVotesSNP call in the 2016 election saw over a million SNP votes discounted in favour of smaller' parties, resulting in over 20 Unionist MSPs being elected with only tiny percentages of the List vote.
The SNPs choice to oppose an ALBA Regional vote did not progress the cause of independence, not because the SNP didnt see the obvious merit in the proposition; I assure you, as an SNP strategist up until the summer of 2016, I've personally had conversations, where such a project was imagined.
Now I dont know for sure, but I feel confident enough to assume the actual reason the SNP did everything they could to derail ALBA was the terror the First Minister might well have had to endure each Thursday afternoon at First Ministers Questions – facing down the man she tried to have imprisoned. But was Nicolas ego and the Million wasted SNP List votes really worth the price of where we are today?
It is worth noting that… if 60% of the SNP List vote were encouraged to vote ALBA on the List in 2021 the new month-old pro-independence party would have been the second largest party in Holyrood. There would have been 66% pro-independence MSPs.
If 100% of the SNP list vote had gone to ALBA, there would have been 74% pro-independence MSPs at Holyrood, stalling the Unionist position.
Anything above 60% of those Million wasted votes would have secured an Independence Parliament – something Westminster would have been helpless to ignore. Scotland would most likely have been independent by now – particularly given the chaos of the Tory party tearing itself apart this past year, resulting in multiple Prime Ministers.
However, instead of a Supermajority, we have had an uneasy SNP-Green coalition which has paid little attention to independence in favour of issues even more contentious, closer to the heart of the Green party leadership than national sovereignty, thrilling only to a tiny fraction of the electorate while confounding to the rest.
The latest folly was in going to the UK Supreme Court to get clarity on hypotheticals – a lawyer of Nicola Sturgeons calibre should have known that was unwise. If she didnt then, she certainly does now.
Be in no doubt, the Supreme Courts judgement is just another own goal by the SNPs leadership. These follies over the past few years have put the independence movement in a very difficult position.
Now we face the prospect of a de facto referendum, an idea that was ridiculed by the SNP only 20 months ago with accusations the strategy was gaming the system. Nevertheless, it is progress that the SNP leadership now agrees with the premise. However, there is potential for more follies to come, so corrective action is urgently needed.
One important consideration not addressed: the UK Supreme Court says it is not in the Scottish Parliament's gift to hold a referendum. Surely that applies to a de facto referendum too.
Excuse me for being cynical… could this be a ruse to return as many SNP MPs as possible to Westminster?
Fair enough you might think. Except, what if in doing so the SNP vote share is an unlikely 50% +1 or higher in a first past the post electoral system – as would be required for a Yes victory in the de facto referendum – and the UK Parliament doesnt concede (because it wont)?
Scotland will be left with a full house of SNP MPs, another mandate, and even more despondency; still standing at the side of the road to nowhere, feeling aggrieved and wondering what to do next.
It gets worse… the next UK general election is scheduled to be held no later than January 2025. So, this sorry situation has two more years to freewheel in the minds of the electorate.
If two weeks is a long time in politics, two years is an eon away, and likely to be a very different reality than we're living through today.
Some dire forecasts predict the world to be in the grip of a global depression by the autumn of 2024. If the Ukraine war spills over into a NATO offensive, no doubt the British Defence Secretary will be sending Scottish soldiers over that hill first, as has been the British tradition since 1707.
It goes without saying that the levers of independence are needed now more than ever in the history of Scotland to mitigate and alleviate any dark storms up ahead. I optimistically hope such dark times don't present themselves too ruthlessly but, with the leadership deficit we have in this world, all bets are off.
We should hope for the best but carefully prepare for the worse case scenarios.
A Westminster general election is way too far off to be meaningful in independence terms.
Two more years, passively reacting to the chaos of a hard Brexit political Union, is going to be devastating.
Take a glimpse of just how bad things could get by looking at the realities, as fast as forest fires, homelessness and dependency are spending across America – the richest country on Earth. Could tent cities also be a possibility on these cold islands?
It's time we take responsibility for ourselves and stop being content with being afterthoughts of self-interested politicians focused on their own problems 400 miles away.
A trumped-up SNP micro-managed conference next year, on what to do next, is simply not good enough.
It is this side of Hogmanay that the wheels must be aligned and ready for swift departure early in the new year. Its pleasing to see the ALBA Party getting the engine started on 10 December, but what good would it be if the SNP membership doesnt participate?
It occurs to me that before any meaningful planning can be achieved, the elephants in the room need to start recognising one another again. Big setbacks call for big corrections.
I advocate for reconciliation and renewal of the independence movement and call on all sides to work together and to be part of better.
The rhyme of history is reverberating loudly this St Andrews Day. Each time Scotland lost its independence it was facilitated by ego-driven divisions amongst the country's leaders.
It was only once those divisions were set aside that the country regained its liberty. The same rules apply today – it is time to put aside childish things if there is to be any hope of freedom in our lifetime. Freedom from Westminster; bedroom taxes, illegal wars, lies, and all the other symptoms of the out-of-date colonial hierarchy that is the UK Parliament and how it still poisons Scottish politics, all for its own arrogant self-preservation.
The SNP leaderships numerous follies must never be forgotten, and they wont be.
However, they all must be forgiven if we have any chance of success going forward. We are where we are and must work with circumstances in which we find ourselves, not as we would wish them to be.
Wounds must be healed, efforts re-doubled, and all available talent put to full use. That will take egos to be sacrificed for the greater good and coordinated cooperation right across the independence movement. It will require all of us to be courteous with one another; recognising that all sides have been guilty of anger and sharp tongues.
In recent years, offence has become a form of political currency. Politicians and activists have mastered the art of indignation to motivate supporters or deflect attention, while the media have been all too happy to leverage these tiny tempests for clicks. The public recoils in horror, as do I. We can, should and must do better. Otherwise, all is lost.
The skeekit, snarky nonsense from all sides in the wider independence movement must end.
And anyone in the Independence leadership – of whatever party – unable to put aside their pride, would best serve Scotland by finding other uses for their talents in favour of letting new leaders emerge.
Then we can get to the question of which vehicle would most likely get us up the hill to where Scotland's bright future awaits.
Those contemplating hijacking the Westminster general election risk damage to Scotland that could take generations to remedy. That race will be fought loudly on the issues front-of-mind of an electorate suffering a very bleak reality two years from now.
The SNP will likely get some seats up front, but nowhere near the driving seat let alone having any input in the direction of travel. Nevertheless, Scotland will remain bound and gagged in the boot alongside the countless billions in North Sea tax revenues required for Britannia to keep up appearances.
And what of the UK media, who have already lost interest in Scotland following the Supreme Court decision? Sweeties and distractions to divert attention will be their approach, as per usual; or the predictable scare stories of us all being left at the side of the road with no currency if we keep complaining.
The only route for Scotlands desperate people is in grasping the thistle of a Holyrood election. It is a vehicle we can summon as easily as an Uber, but it will be our own vehicle, driven on Scotlands terms, for Scotland's benefit.
The question of Scotland's future is not one for a judge in a court hundreds of miles away. Instead, it is a political problem, which requires astute political solutions.
Scotland has a political instrument in Holyrood, and we must use it; sooner rather than later.
Either way, Scotland is going into a global storm. We need to decide if we want to remain our neighbours uneasy passenger or instead become the driver of our own ambitions. It cant be both and neither will be easy.
Divided, were conquered. United, were unbeatable. Once we get to the destination we can [politely] debate everybodys wish list for the countrys itinerary.
But for now, we must first unite, then get in the correct vehicle and get off this bleak road to nowhere, before it's too late.